The Philippine property market is entering the second half of 2026 with cautiously improving momentum, even as the country's condominium sector remains firmly a buyer's market. Easing global energy costs, resilient underlying demand, and a significant reform to foreign land-leasing rules are combining to shape a market that looks considerably more stable than it did a year ago — though oversupply in Metro Manila condos is still the dominant theme.
Price and Market Trends
According to industry coverage from IQI Global, the Philippines property market is showing stronger recovery signs heading into H2 2026, aided in part by fuel rollbacks tied to the US-Iran ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which stabilized global oil markets and eased pressure on household budgets and business costs alike. That improved backdrop is feeding through into slightly firmer buyer confidence nationally.
On pricing, the average luxury residential price in Metro Manila reached approximately PHP197,500 (about US$3,359) per square meter in Q1 2026, a continued deceleration from PHP202,590/sqm in Q3 2025. More broadly, nationwide housing prices in June 2026 are estimated to be running 2% to 4% higher in nominal peso terms than a year earlier, with a central estimate around 3% — modest growth that reflects a market still working through excess supply rather than one in a strong upcycle.
Notable Recent News
1. Metro Manila's condo glut persists, but supply growth is slowing sharply. The condominium segment remains squarely in buyers' territory, with an estimated 74,000 to 75,300 unsold units across Metro Manila, according to figures reported via IQI Global and Bamboo Routes. Developers continue to lean on discounts, rent-to-own arrangements, and extended payment terms to move inventory. Looking ahead, however, new supply is expected to tighten meaningfully — to roughly 3,600 new condo units annually from 2026 through 2028, well below the prior peak average of about 13,000 units a year — which could eventually help absorb the current overhang.
2. Middle East tensions and inflation concerns weighed on the condo market earlier this year. The Manila Times reported in late May 2026 that the Philippine residential condo market was facing headwinds from Middle East geopolitical instability and inflation concerns, both of which had been dampening buyer sentiment in the run-up to the current, more stable summer conditions. The subsequent easing of oil prices appears to have reversed some of that pressure, illustrating how sensitive the Philippine market remains to global energy and geopolitical shocks.
3. A major reform now allows 99-year land leases for qualifying foreign investors. As of January 2026, the Philippines has expanded its land-leasing framework to allow qualifying foreign investors to lease land for up to 99 years, according to guidance compiled by ManilaNests and other property-law sources. Foreigners still cannot own land outright under the Philippine Constitution, and condo ownership remains capped at 40% foreign ownership per project (meaning popular buildings in BGC and Makati can effectively be "full" for new foreign buyers). But the extended lease term represents one of the more significant liberalizations of the country's traditionally restrictive foreign ownership regime in years, and could open up new investment structures outside the already-saturated condo segment.
Outlook
The Philippine market's near-term story is really about digestion: absorbing a large backlog of unsold Metro Manila condos while broader economic conditions — energy prices, inflation, and global stability — slowly improve. The sharp planned pullback in new condo supply through 2028 suggests the current buyer's market won't last indefinitely, and the new 99-year land lease option for foreign investors could gradually redirect international capital toward alternative property structures. For now, buyers in Makati, BGC, Ortigas, and Eastwood continue to enjoy considerable negotiating leverage, while the broader market waits for the current oversupply to clear.
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